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Prior to their bye week a month ago
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Davante Adams Jersey , the Green Bay Packers had been a fairly successful team in the fourth quarter of games. They posted absurd comeback victories against the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers — two teams on opposite ends of the standings at present — and although they blew a big lead to the Vikings in the fourth in week two, they also nearly made a furious comeback in Detroit as well.But since the bye, that quarter has killed this team. Opponents have out-scored the Packers 30-13 in the final frame over the past four games, and the team has made a series of frustrating blunders, both in execution by the players and in decisions by the coaching staff, en route to a 1-3 record in that stretch.Still, the Packers have managed to stay alive in the playoff hunt despite their 4-5-1 record on the season, and their playoff hopes remain very much alive heading into a critical game on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings. Win that game and the equation completely changes; lose it and it’s likely that any hope of the postseason is effectively gone.How’s that for a fun sentiment on your Monday morning?Kyler Fackrell’s career day ends in ‘bittersweet’ fashion | Packers.comFackrell says his breakout this season isn't due to anything specific, just his general all-around work ethic off the field. However, he lamented that his big game in Seattle wasn't part of a win, and he focused on a few plays that he did leave out on the field.After 10 games, here are 5 things Packers must do to turn season around | Packersnews.comThird downs are absolutely a critical area for the Packers to improve on, as the team has allowed 17 sacks on 107 passing plays on third downs.More analytics say Packers’ decision to punt was wrong choice | Packers WireAccording to Pro Football Focus Josh Jones Color Rush Jersey , the Packers improved their chance of winning by just one percent by punting away on fourth-and-two rather than turning the ball over on downs. But if they had gone for it and converted, they would have increased their odds of winning to 38%.NFL teams we cannot figure out: Packers, Broncos, Lions, Titans | SI.comAaron Jones and Davante Adams are playing great football, and Aaron Rodgers has certainly had some terrific moments and is putting up mostly great numbers of late. It’s the team’s performance in the first half of the season and the fourth quarter of games that is the most concerning part to me.Bears vs. Vikings: 7 winners, 2 losers from Chicago’s NFC North win - SBNation.comChicago's victory puts them three games up on the Packers in the division race with six games to go, a nearly-insurmountable lead at this point.Ron Rivera on failed 2-point try: I was going for the win - NFL.comMeanwhile, the Panthers tried a two-pointer in Detroit while down one point late in the game, and Cam Newton's pass was just a bit high and sailed incomplete.Christopher Walken portrait returned to Edinburgh pub after being stolen in ‘heist’ - Edinburgh Evening News"In this instance all is good as we got our beloved Christopher back," said the bar owner about this painting of Walken dressed up as a 19th-century general. By punting on fourth-and-2 with 4:30 left in the fourth quarter and his team trailing by three, Mike McCarthy played not to lose. He would say after the game the team was “playing the numbers” but that simply doesn’t track. Not only is the math in Green Bay’s favor in that situation, simple game theory suggests the move was to go for it. Whatever “numbers” McCarthy went with https://www.thepackersfanshop.com/David-...ari-Jersey , they would likely have been better used to play the lottery. Unfortunately for McCarthy — and by extension for a Packers team that now falls to 4-5-1 — the stats tell the story. So far this season, teams have converted 20/35 fourth-and-2 situations this season, including seven of nine running the ball. On a per carry basis, Green Bay has the best running game in football. Even on a night when Aaron Jones and the run game never quite got on track, he averaged over 3.6 yards per carry. Hard to fathom Jones, one of the best after contact backs in the league, couldn’t have willed his way to two yards. Oh, also the Packers have Aaron Rodgers. Now, this was the same Aaron Rodgers who had just skipped a pass to Marquez Valdes-Scantling on third-and-2 for what would have been an easy first down, but according to Football Outsiders, Rodgers converts just under 60% of the time on third or fourth-and-2. The league numbers say the Packers would have a better than 50/50 chance to convert (the league is converting 4th-and-2 at a 57% clip this season), and the team specific numbers say with Rodgers, Green Bay is more than 60% to convert. On the other side of the scale Jason Spriggs Jersey , McCarthy had to weigh the ability for his team to get a stop. On a day when Green Bay allowed 173 yards on 35 attempts, lost Mike Daniels earlier in the game and was playing with a hobbled Kenny Clark, what numbers could possibly make it more likely the team can stop Seattle on three straight runs rather than give their future Hall of Fame quarterback another bite at the apple? There must also be a calculation of what he loses if he doesn’t convert. If the Packers kick on fourth down and get a stop, they get the ball down a field goal. One score. If McCarthy decides to go for it and doesn’t make it, the same rules apply. From the 33, it’s a 50-yard field goal on a chilly night in Seattle. If the Packers do what McCarthy wants them to do and get a stop, even in the worst case scenario it’s a Sebastian Janikowski field goal try. If he makes it, the Packers are down six and a touchdown still wins it. Banking on the defense to make a stop isn’t a terrible call, but give the offense the chance to do its thing first. That defensive stop, if McCarthy has faith in his team to get it, can still give them a chance to win the game. It’s not as if a field goal would have put the game out of reach. A touchdown certainly would have, but if the defense gave up the 33 yards needed to score, it would have lost the game no matter where it took place on the field. It’s likely that the amount of time left Mike Daniels Color Rush Jersey , still over four minutes, played a major factor in the decision. Even if the Packers couldn’t get a stop on the initial possession, there would be time to get the ball back if the defense could hold with a timeout and the two-minute warning. Had the fourth down come with just two minutes left or 1:50, somewhere in that range, McCarthy likely has no choice but to go for it with one timeout. But the numbers, even there, aren’t in McCarthy’s favor. Less than 15% of teams who punted down one score in the final five minutes have won their game going back to 2001. There’s no empirical argument for McCarthy’s decision on fourth down, no numbers to support him. He made a judgment call and it was the wrong one. It wasn’t the only bad decision in the game, or the only factor to decide the outcome, but it was the back-breaking one for the Packers.
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